Question

If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters89

Community Prediction40% (19% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 16, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 3001

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 3001

Natural Sciences

Earth

Hubris by Johannes Krause and Thomas Trappe review – learning from the Neanderthals

Guardian•Jan 28, 2025

So What If There Was Life on Mars?

PJ Media•Jan 28, 2025

Augmenting Humanity: Exploring the Essential Foundations of Artificial Ultra-Intelligence

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2043-08-04

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

287k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 16, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 3001

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 3001

Natural Sciences

Earth

Hubris by Johannes Krause and Thomas Trappe review – learning from the Neanderthals

Guardian•Jan 28, 2025

So What If There Was Life on Mars?

PJ Media•Jan 28, 2025

Augmenting Humanity: Exploring the Essential Foundations of Artificial Ultra-Intelligence

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2043-08-04

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

287k