Question

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters95

Community Prediction77%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 77%

median 77.0%mean 70.2%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

57%

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?

61%

Comments

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

UN watchdog warns time to 'maneuver' on Iran's nuclear program is shrinking: report

FOX News•Nov 14, 2024

Iran tells UN nuclear chief willing to resolve 'ambiguities'

•Nov 15, 2024

Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program Took a Yuge Hit

PJ Media•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

57%

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?

61%