Question

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters98

Community Prediction75% (50% - 84%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Aug 14, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2041

Iranian Lawmakers Demand Nuke to Stop Trump

Breitbart•Feb 13, 2025

Iran is rearming its missile program and a ship of supplies just arrived from China, Western sources say

CNN•Feb 14, 2025

US intelligence agencies believe Israel is likely to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this year

CNN•Feb 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

10%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

56%

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Aug 14, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2041

Iranian Lawmakers Demand Nuke to Stop Trump

Breitbart•Feb 13, 2025

Iran is rearming its missile program and a ship of supplies just arrived from China, Western sources say

CNN•Feb 14, 2025

US intelligence agencies believe Israel is likely to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this year

CNN•Feb 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

10%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

56%

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

20%