Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?

Resolved :Above upper bound5M
4
12
Total Forecasters198
Community Prediction5M (5M - 5M)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>5M
...
...
...
...
>5M
>5M
>5M
94.0%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score
59.9
Community Peer Score
10.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Gaia
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Ukraine Conflict
Geopolitics
2022 Leaderboard
Moldova
Russo-Ukrainian War
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Hungary
Slovakia
Poland
Ukraine
Russia

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