Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?

Resolved :No2%

44 comments44

Total Forecasters467

Community Prediction2% (1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.8

Community Peer Score

4.7

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Mar 16, 2022

Closes:

Dec 14, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

Elon Musk Goes After NATO

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

NATO is in disarray after the US announces that its security priorities lie elsewhere

Associated Press•Feb 13, 2025

NATO nations are reportedly in talks to boost defense spending amid Trump's return to power

Business Insider•Feb 16, 2025

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