Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

There's still time to compete for $3,500 in commenting prizes: Learn how you can help GiveWell help others.

M

Question

Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?

Resolved :Yes82%
33
65
Total Forecasters438
Community Prediction82% (71% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 82%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
5.8
Community Peer Score
-0.1
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Ukraine Conflict
Geopolitics
Economy & Business
2022 Leaderboard
Fitch Ratings
Standard & Poor's
Moody's Investors Service
1998 Russian financial crisis
Ukraine
Russia

Comments

? comments