Question

Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?

no comments0

Total Forecasters49

Community Prediction1.5% (1% - 7.2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1.5%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Mar 25, 2022

Closes:

Jan 2, 2075

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 3, 2075

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Federation of American Scientists

Global Zero (campaign)

Earth

Deterrence theory

Donald Trump Makes Major Nuclear Weapons Announcement

Newsweek•Feb 14, 2025

It’s time the world understands a nuclear war cannot be won

Al Jazeera•Feb 16, 2025

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

7.28k

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

9.5k

Comments

? comments