Question

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters65

Community Prediction2064-08

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2199-12

...

2033-06

2064-08

2199-12

25.2%

Authors:

marius.hobbhahn

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Nobel Prize

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

66%

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

2026-07

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

2063-05

Comments

? comments

Authors:

marius.hobbhahn

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Nobel Prize

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

66%

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

2026-07

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

2063-05

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When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

Make a Prediction

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Comments

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?