Question

When will the abc conjecture be settled?

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction2036-02-26 (2029-09-06 - 2061-11-09)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	<2022-01-01	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2100-01-01
community	3.0%	2029	2036	2061	8.8%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<2022-01-01	3.0%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	2029	—
median	2036	—
upper 75%	2061	—
Upper bound
>2100-01-01	8.8%	—

Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Mar 27, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2041

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

The Saw-Toothed Function That Broke Calculus

Wired•Feb 23, 2025

What’s the shape of the universe? Mathematicians use topology to study the shape of the world and everything in it

The Conversation•Feb 26, 2025

This Twist on Einstein’s Greatest Theory Deserves More Attention

Scientific American•Feb 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Is the abc conjecture true?

91%

Will Mochizuki retract his proof of the abc conjecture before 2050?

12.3%

Sums and Products

Comments

? comments