Question

Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?

Resolved :No

151 comments151

Total Forecasters648

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

69.0

Community Peer Score

28.5

median 1.0%mean 1.5%

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

United Nations General Assembly

Boris Johnson

United Nations Security Council

Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.3%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

Comments

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