Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?

Resolved :Yes99%
21
64
Total Forecasters490
Community Prediction99% (99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
88.5
Community Peer Score
15.4
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Ukraine Conflict
Verity
Geopolitics
2022 Leaderboard
Russian Armed Forces
Donetsk Oblast
Mariupol

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