Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?

Resolved :No1%
8
5
Total Forecasters227
Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

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50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
95.1
Community Peer Score
5.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Ukraine Conflict
Verity
Geopolitics
2022 Leaderboard
Russian Armed Forces
Sumy
Ukraine
Russia

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