Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

A rigorous GWU study is set to determine precisely how many Puerto Ricans died because of Hurricane Maria: what will that number be?

Resolved :Above upper bound2k
4
9
Total Forecasters36
Community Prediction2k (2k - 2k)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<100
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2k
...
...
...
...
...
0.1%
>2k
>2k
>2k
85.8%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score
2.3
Community Peer Score
0.1
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AdamK
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Environment & Climate
2018 Leaderboard
Puerto Rico
Hurricane Maria
George Washington University

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