Question

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters148

Community Prediction36.9%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 36.9%

median 36.9%mean 37.2%

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

University of Augsburg

Copper

American Chemical Society

The Register

Germanium

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

24.9%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?

99%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

University of Augsburg

Copper

American Chemical Society

The Register

Germanium

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Daily Mail•Nov 12, 2024

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The dilemma of mining more metals so we can ditch fossil fuels

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

24.9%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?

99%