Question

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters148

Community Prediction36.9% (25% - 47%)

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50%

community: 36.9%

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Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

University of Augsburg

Copper

American Chemical Society

The Register

Germanium

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

It's just before midnight--and I need skills

OpEdNews•Dec 19, 2024

New Research Reveals Carbon ‘Time Bomb’ In Our Homes, Appliances

Forbes•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

24.9%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?

99%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

University of Augsburg

Copper

American Chemical Society

The Register

Germanium

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

It's just before midnight--and I need skills

OpEdNews•Dec 19, 2024

New Research Reveals Carbon ‘Time Bomb’ In Our Homes, Appliances

Forbes•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

24.9%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?

99%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

Make a Prediction

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?

Comments

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?