MetaculusM

Question

Question

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?

Resolved :Yes

6

Total Forecasters44

Community Prediction95%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-7.2

Community Peer Score

19.3

median 95.0%mean 85.9%

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Debretsion Gebremichael

Human Rights Watch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Debretsion Gebremichael

Human Rights Watch