Question

Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction46.5% (33% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 46.5%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Natural Sciences

Space

Chelyabinsk meteor

Ursid Meteor Shower Set to Light Up the Sky

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Huge 'Christmas Eve asteroid' the size of a 10-storey building will skim past Earth at 14,743mph on 24 December, NASA warns

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

0.3%

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Natural Sciences

Space

Chelyabinsk meteor

Ursid Meteor Shower Set to Light Up the Sky

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Huge 'Christmas Eve asteroid' the size of a 10-storey building will skim past Earth at 14,743mph on 24 December, NASA warns

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

0.3%

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?

Make a Prediction

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

Comments

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?