Question

How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction11.7 (9.25 - 14.7)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>220

...

9.248

11.68

14.73

0.1%

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Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United Nations

People's Liberation Army

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

Red panda diplomacy offers glimmer of hope even as China-Taiwan tensions soar

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%

How many countries will become UN member states before 2075?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United Nations

People's Liberation Army

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

Red panda diplomacy offers glimmer of hope even as China-Taiwan tensions soar

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%

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MetaculusM

How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

How many countries will become UN member states before 2075?

Comments

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

How many countries will become UN member states before 2075?

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

How many countries will become UN member states before 2075?

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

How many countries will become UN member states before 2075?