Question

How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025?

Total Forecasters13

Community Prediction12.2 (11.8 - 13)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>20
community	11.77	12.17	12.98	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	11.77	—
median	12.17	—
upper 75%	12.98	—
Upper bound
>20	0.4%	—

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Apr 14, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Geopolitics

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Qatar

Iraq

Nigeria

United States–Venezuela relations

Oil Prices Fall After OPEC Plus Affirms Plan to Raise Production

New York Times•Mar 4, 2025

Oil Prices Fall After OPEC Plus Affirms Plan to Raise Production

•Mar 4, 2025

Saudi oil giant Aramco reports $106 billion profit in 2024, down 12% on lower energy prices

Associated Press•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?

How many parties will the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership have on December 31, 2030?

12.5

When will peak oil production be reached worldwide?

2031-01-06

Comments

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Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Apr 14, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Geopolitics

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Qatar

Iraq

Nigeria

United States–Venezuela relations

Oil Prices Fall After OPEC Plus Affirms Plan to Raise Production

New York Times•Mar 4, 2025

Oil Prices Fall After OPEC Plus Affirms Plan to Raise Production

•Mar 4, 2025

Saudi oil giant Aramco reports $106 billion profit in 2024, down 12% on lower energy prices

Associated Press•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?

How many parties will the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership have on December 31, 2030?

12.5

When will peak oil production be reached worldwide?

2031-01-06