📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

24
57
Total Forecasters262
Community Prediction3% (1% - 9%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 3%
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Politics
Vice President of the US
Governor
Speaker of the US House of Representatives
US House of Representatives
Elon Musk
President of the US
United States
US Senate

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