Question

Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?

Resolved :2

7 comments7

Total Forecasters96

Community Prediction6.23

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

4.554

6.226

7.689

What was the final result?2

Community Baseline Score

-11.0

Community Peer Score

61.3

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

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Resolves:

Business of AI

AI Safety

Geopolitics

Artificial Intelligence

Lethal autonomous weapon

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

2.5%

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