📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Will the US enter a recession before the following dates?

36
239
462 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 344

Make a Prediction

Period Ending beforeMe
2023
no
2024
20%
2025
5%
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
Resolved Jul 1, 2023
Community Baseline Score
7.5
Community Peer Score
46.7
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Economy & Business
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Recession
National Bureau of Economic Research
Gross domestic product
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
University of Michigan
International Monetary Fund
United States
Federal Reserve

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