Question

Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

23 comments23

Total Forecasters397

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

84.9

Community Peer Score

19.4

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Apr 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Ukraine Conflict

Verity

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Istanbul

European Union

United Kingdom

Center for Strategic and International Studies

NATO

Boris Johnson

United Nations Security Council

Germany

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy hopes Trump’s ‘unpredictability’ can end war with Russia

Guardian•Jan 26, 2025

Zelensky Says Ukraine Giving Up Nukes Was ‘Stupid, Illogical, and Irresponsible’

Breitbart•Jan 30, 2025

EU leaders insist no decisions can be taken about Ukraine without Ukraine, or behind their backs

Associated Press•Jan 31, 2025

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