Question

Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?

Resolved :Yes

56 comments56

Total Forecasters607

Community Prediction99.4%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.4%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

57.1

Community Peer Score

31.8

median 99.4%mean 96.3%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

Donetsk People's Republic

War in Donbass

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Luhansk People's Republic

Ukraine

Crimea

Russia

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

25%

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99%

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