Question

Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?

Resolved :Yes99.4%

56 comments56

Total Forecasters607

Community Prediction99.4% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.4%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

57.1

Community Beer Score

31.8

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Donetsk People's Republic

War in Donbass

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Luhansk People's Republic

Ukraine

Crimea

Russia

Ukraine-Russia war map: Where Putin’s forces are making gains in eastern Ukraine

Independent•Dec 14, 2024

War Map Reveals Russian Advances As Ukraine's Fortifications Destroyed

Newsweek•Dec 15, 2024

Putin Ally Says 'New, Very Close Regions' Could Join Russia

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

23%

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Donetsk People's Republic

War in Donbass

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Luhansk People's Republic

Ukraine

Crimea

Russia

Ukraine-Russia war map: Where Putin’s forces are making gains in eastern Ukraine

Independent•Dec 14, 2024

War Map Reveals Russian Advances As Ukraine's Fortifications Destroyed

Newsweek•Dec 15, 2024

Putin Ally Says 'New, Very Close Regions' Could Join Russia

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

23%

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99%

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Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

Comments

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?