Question

Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?

Resolved :No1%

6 comments6

Total Forecasters103

Community Prediction1% (1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.1

Community Peer Score

7.3

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

United States

Russia

UN Nuclear Inspector: Iran At ‘Practically The Same Level As Nuclear-Armed States’

Daily Wire•Dec 19, 2024

Iran expands weaponization capabilities critical for employing nuclear bomb

FOX News•Dec 20, 2024

Menaced by foreign foes, facing mutiny at home: how long before Iran goes nuclear? | Simon Tisdall

Guardian•Dec 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

25%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

United States

Russia

UN Nuclear Inspector: Iran At ‘Practically The Same Level As Nuclear-Armed States’

Daily Wire•Dec 19, 2024

Iran expands weaponization capabilities critical for employing nuclear bomb

FOX News•Dec 20, 2024

Menaced by foreign foes, facing mutiny at home: how long before Iran goes nuclear? | Simon Tisdall

Guardian•Dec 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

25%

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12.2%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?

Make a Prediction

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Comments

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?