Question

Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?

Resolved :No

6 comments6

Total Forecasters103

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.1

Community Peer Score

7.3

median 1.0%mean 3.6%

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

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Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

United States

Russia

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?

15%

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