Question

Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?

Resolved :No1%

6 comments6

Total Forecasters103

Community Prediction1% (1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.1

Community Peer Score

7.3

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Jul 14, 2018

Closes:

Sep 7, 2018

Resolves:

Sep 9, 2018

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

United States

Russia

Iranian government official who was key to 2015 nuclear deal resigns under hard-liner pressure

Associated Press•Mar 3, 2025

Iran’s Zarif resigns amid political wrangling over economic woes

Al Jazeera•Mar 3, 2025

Iranian Nuclear Dealmaker Quits as U.S. Sanctions Tighten

Newsweek•Mar 3, 2025

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