Question

Will Georgia control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction5%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

median 5.0%mean 10.8%

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

European Court of Human Rights

Anatoly Bibilov

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Moldova control Transnistria before 2028?

20%

Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?

0.1%

Comments

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Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

European Court of Human Rights

Anatoly Bibilov

Protests erupt in breakaway Georgian region over deal with Russia

NBC•Nov 15, 2024

Georgia: Protesters storm parliament in breakaway region of Abkhazia over Russia deal

CNN•Nov 15, 2024

Tensions Boil Over in Georgia's Abkhazia Over Property Rights for Russians

Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Moldova control Transnistria before 2028?

20%

Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?

0.1%