🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?

Resolved :Below lower bound1
7
25
Total Forecasters192
Community Prediction...

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
<1
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>5
...
...
...
...
...
80.8%
<1
<1
<1
0.5%

What was the final result?Below lower bound

Community Baseline Score
117.5
Community Peer Score
41.5
Authors:
EvanHarper
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Ukraine Conflict
Geopolitics
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Federal Security Service
Registered Cossacks of the Russian Federation
Foreign Intelligence Service (Russia)
China
Eurasian Economic Union
Hong Kong
Russian Armed Forces
National Guard of Russia
Russia

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