Question

How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?

Resolved :Below lower bound1

25 comments25

Total Forecasters192

Community Prediction...

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

80.8%

0.5%

What was the final result?Below lower bound

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117.5

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41.5

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Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Federal Security Service

Registered Cossacks of the Russian Federation

Foreign Intelligence Service (Russia)

China

Eurasian Economic Union

Hong Kong

Russian Armed Forces

National Guard of Russia

Russia

Ukraine’s assassination of a Russian general should be a ‘signal’ to elites: Fmr. Amb. to Russia

NBC•Dec 18, 2024

News Analysis: Russian general’s assassination in Moscow: Chilling new phase in Ukraine war?

•Dec 18, 2024

A string of assassinations, a faltering economy, a shortage of workers: the pressure on Putin is ratcheting up | Olga Chyzh

Guardian•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

30%

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

0.5%

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

14%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Federal Security Service

Registered Cossacks of the Russian Federation

Foreign Intelligence Service (Russia)

China

Eurasian Economic Union

Hong Kong

Russian Armed Forces

National Guard of Russia

Russia

Ukraine’s assassination of a Russian general should be a ‘signal’ to elites: Fmr. Amb. to Russia

NBC•Dec 18, 2024

News Analysis: Russian general’s assassination in Moscow: Chilling new phase in Ukraine war?

•Dec 18, 2024

A string of assassinations, a faltering economy, a shortage of workers: the pressure on Putin is ratcheting up | Olga Chyzh

Guardian•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

30%

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

0.5%

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

14%

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How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

Comments

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?