Question

What percentage of participants who adhere to the diet in the SMTM potato study and start with a BMI > 30 will lose 20 lbs or more over 4 weeks?

Resolved :11.116.8

2 comments2

Total Forecasters9

Community Prediction16.8 (3.64 - 44.6)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

3.643

16.84

44.58

What was the final result?11.1

Community Baseline Score

35.0

Community Peer Score

9.2

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

jonathannankivell

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

US obesity rates drop for the first time in a decade likely due to popular weight loss medications

New York Post•Dec 16, 2024

‘Yo-yo’ weight loss occurs because of this surprising reason

FOX News•Dec 16, 2024

New study finds first US obesity decline in 10 years. Is Ozempic a leading factor?

USA Today•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?

44.3

Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?

20%

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

59.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jonathannankivell

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

US obesity rates drop for the first time in a decade likely due to popular weight loss medications

New York Post•Dec 16, 2024

‘Yo-yo’ weight loss occurs because of this surprising reason

FOX News•Dec 16, 2024

New study finds first US obesity decline in 10 years. Is Ozempic a leading factor?

USA Today•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?

44.3

Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?

20%

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

59.7%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

What percentage of participants who adhere to the diet in the SMTM potato study and start with a BMI > 30 will lose 20 lbs or more over 4 weeks?

Make a Prediction

What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?

Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

Comments

What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?

Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?

Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?

Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?