🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?

Resolved :No20%
17
19
Total Forecasters136
Community Prediction20% (11% - 29%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 20%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
57.9
Community Peer Score
9.6
Authors:
satisficer
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Verity
Geopolitics
2022 Leaderboard
Russia under Vladimir Putin
Russia
Ukraine
Victory Day (9 May)

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