🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When (if ever) will the Arctic be essentially ice-free?

14
18
Total Forecasters14
Community Prediction2040-07-13 (2035-05-14 - 2040-07-13)

Make a Prediction

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
My Prediction
community
<2020-07-13
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2040-07-13
...
...
...
...
...
1.0%
2035-05-14 14:34
>2040-07-13 00:00
>2040-07-13 00:00
57.6%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AdamK
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Natural Sciences
2018 Leaderboard
Astronomy
Earth science
Atmospheric science
Climatology
Peter Wadhams
Solar physics
Arctic
Climate change denial
National Snow and Ice Data Center

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