🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?

Resolved :No1%
13
Resolved Jan 1, 2023
2
Community Prediction0%5.8%11.6%17.4%23.2%29%Nov 02Nov 06Nov 10Nov 14Nov 18Nov 22Nov 26Nov 30Dec 04Dec 08Dec 12Dec 16Dec 20Dec 24Dec 28now
Total Forecasters57
Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
72.6
Community Peer Score
10.7
Learn more about scores here.

Resolution Criteria

median 1.0%mean 3.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
Tamay
Opened:May 5, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2023
Resolves:Jan 1, 2023
Business of AI
Artificial Intelligence
2022 Leaderboard
Meta

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