Question

How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?

27 comments27

Total Forecasters131

Community Prediction274 (253 - 296)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

252.9

274

296.2

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

1936 United States presidential election

Franklin D. Roosevelt

2024 Elections (US)

Democrats score wins in the first races since Trump’s re-election

MSNBC•Jan 9, 2025

What was different this time?

American Thinker•Jan 9, 2025

For First Time This Century, Democrats Don’t Challenge GOP President’s Electoral Votes

Daily Caller•Jan 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

53%

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

1936 United States presidential election

Franklin D. Roosevelt

2024 Elections (US)

Democrats score wins in the first races since Trump’s re-election

MSNBC•Jan 9, 2025

What was different this time?

American Thinker•Jan 9, 2025

For First Time This Century, Democrats Don’t Challenge GOP President’s Electoral Votes

Daily Caller•Jan 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

53%

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

MetaculusM

How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?

Make a Prediction

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Comments

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?