📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?

Resolved :7979.9
15
41
Total Forecasters109
Community Prediction79.9 (75.7 - 83.7)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
75.75
79.93
83.74

What was the final result?79

Community Baseline Score
62.0
Community Peer Score
34.5
Authors:
SamStreet32
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Mpox (Monkeypox)
Health & Pandemics
2022 Leaderboard
Italy
Portugal
AIDS in Africa
United Kingdom
Sweden
World Health Organization
Central African Republic
Spain
Infectious disease

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