Question

How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?

78 comments78

Total Forecasters218

Community Prediction104k (80.3k - 160k)

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>500M

...

80.3k

103.5k

160.3k

0.3%

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Authors:

Gaia Tamay

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

World Health Organization

Spain

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Wired•Dec 21, 2024

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NBC•Dec 23, 2024

Which infectious disease is likely to be the biggest emerging problem in 2025?

AlterNet•Dec 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

23.8k

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.11

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Gaia Tamay

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

World Health Organization

Spain

This Tropical Virus Is Spreading Out of the Amazon to the US and Europe

Wired•Dec 21, 2024

Key warning signs about bird flu are all going in the wrong direction

NBC•Dec 23, 2024

Which infectious disease is likely to be the biggest emerging problem in 2025?

AlterNet•Dec 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

23.8k

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.11

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?

Make a Prediction

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Comments

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?