Question

How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?

Resolved :29

26 comments26

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction28.1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

27.03

28.11

29.5

What was the final result?29

Community Baseline Score

22.1

Community Peer Score

46.2

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

U.S. confirms first case of more aggressive strain of mpox

NBC•Nov 17, 2024

Mpox strain identified for first time in US, health officials say

USA Today•Nov 17, 2024

US Health officials report first known case of new, more severe strain of monkeypox

New York Post•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

22.3k

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.09

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