Question

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters92

Community Prediction55%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

median 55.0%mean 55.5%

Authors:

jackmgaller

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution

Democratic Party (US)

US Electoral College

How Democrats Can Win Back the Senate

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

Ready for 2028? Democratic hopefuls are secretly trying to build momentum as party looks to rebound

Independent•Nov 12, 2024

One election victory does not make a new era in American politics − here’s what history shows

The Conversation•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

35%

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Trump in power beyond 2028?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jackmgaller

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution

Democratic Party (US)

US Electoral College

How Democrats Can Win Back the Senate

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

Ready for 2028? Democratic hopefuls are secretly trying to build momentum as party looks to rebound

Independent•Nov 12, 2024

One election victory does not make a new era in American politics − here’s what history shows

The Conversation•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

35%