Question

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters113

Community Prediction

55%

(39% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Authors:

jackmgaller

Opened:

May 7, 2023

Closes:

Nov 7, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 20, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

May 9, 2023

Elections

Politics

Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution

US Electoral College

Democratic Party (US)

AOC's Chances of Becoming Democrats' 2028 Presidential Nominee: Polls

Newsweek•Mar 23, 2025

Donald Trump Among 2028 Presidential Favorites Despite Two-Term Limit

Newsweek•Mar 22, 2025

Why Does THIS Candidate Have Such a Big Lead in the Dems' 2028 Sweepstakes?

PJ Media•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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46%

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1.4%

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

33%

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