Question

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters265

Community Prediction61% (51% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 61%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

China breaks silence on apparent military drills around Taiwan

Independent•Dec 14, 2024

From defense to chips, Trump keeps Taiwan guessing

CNN•Dec 16, 2024

Taiwan gets its first US Abrams tanks as it prepares for a possible invasion by China

Business Insider•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

71%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

China breaks silence on apparent military drills around Taiwan

Independent•Dec 14, 2024

From defense to chips, Trump keeps Taiwan guessing

CNN•Dec 16, 2024

Taiwan gets its first US Abrams tanks as it prepares for a possible invasion by China

Business Insider•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

71%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%

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If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

Make a Prediction

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

Comments

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?