Question

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

22 comments22

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction68%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 68%

median 68.0%mean 62.7%

Authors:

Wombat

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Future of Life Institute

University of California, Berkeley

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

65%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Wombat

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Future of Life Institute

University of California, Berkeley

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Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

65%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%