Question

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters140

Community Prediction75%

Make a Prediction

community: 75%

median 75.0%mean 66.8%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Taiwan independence movement

China

Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Joe Biden

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

66%

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Taiwan independence movement

China

Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Joe Biden

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

66%

MetaculusM

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If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

Make a Prediction

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Comments

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?