Question

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

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Total Forecasters272

Community Prediction99% (96% - 99.5%)

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community: 99%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

Why AI must learn to admit ignorance and say 'I don't know'

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

I Spent Some Time With OpenAI's 'Sora' and I Don't See How Hollywood Survives In the Long Term

Red State•Dec 18, 2024

Will 2025 Be a "Technology Wake-Up Call" for Clinicians?

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99%

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

Why AI must learn to admit ignorance and say 'I don't know'

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

I Spent Some Time With OpenAI's 'Sora' and I Don't See How Hollywood Survives In the Long Term

Red State•Dec 18, 2024

Will 2025 Be a "Technology Wake-Up Call" for Clinicians?

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99%

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

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Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

Comments

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?