Question

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

69 comments69

Total Forecasters408

Community Prediction99% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 8, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

AGI

Gary Marcus

New York University

These researchers used NPR Sunday Puzzle questions to benchmark AI ‘reasoning’ models

TechCrunch•Feb 17, 2025

Elon Musk’s xAI releases its latest flagship model, Grok 3

TechCrunch•Feb 19, 2025

Elon Musk's Grok 3 model impresses — but early reactions suggest OpenAI remains ahead

Business Insider•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

97%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 8, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

AGI

Gary Marcus

New York University

These researchers used NPR Sunday Puzzle questions to benchmark AI ‘reasoning’ models

TechCrunch•Feb 17, 2025

Elon Musk’s xAI releases its latest flagship model, Grok 3

TechCrunch•Feb 19, 2025

Elon Musk's Grok 3 model impresses — but early reactions suggest OpenAI remains ahead

Business Insider•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

97%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%