Question

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

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Total Forecasters402

Community Prediction99% (99% - 99.9%)

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community: 99%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

AGI

Gary Marcus

New York University

Why AI must learn to admit ignorance and say 'I don't know'

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

AI pioneer Andrej Karpathy thinks book reading needs an AI upgrade. Amazon may already be working on it.

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

AGI

Gary Marcus

New York University

Why AI must learn to admit ignorance and say 'I don't know'

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

AI pioneer Andrej Karpathy thinks book reading needs an AI upgrade. Amazon may already be working on it.

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

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Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Comments

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?