Question

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction193 (1.33 - 125k)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>1M
community	1.329	193.3	125k	18.8%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	1.329	—
median	193.3	—
upper 75%	125k	—
Upper bound
>1M	18.8%	—

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Aug 11, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2200

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2200

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Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.108

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00261

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Aug 11, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2200

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2200

Aerospace engineering

Physics

Dyson sphere

Science fiction

Self-replicating spacecraft

Evolving intelligent life took billions of years − but it may not have been as unlikely as many scientists predicted

The Conversation•Feb 16, 2025

Intelligent Aliens May Be Common On Earth-Like Planets, Scientists Say

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Odds of human-like lifeforms on other planets may be more likely than previously thought: study

New York Post•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.108

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00261

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

10%