Question

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction193 (1.33 - 125k)

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weight:

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1M

...

1.329

193.3

125k

18.8%

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Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Aerospace engineering

Physics

Dyson sphere

Science fiction

Self-replicating spacecraft

Astronomers Propose Radical New Way To Look For Signs Of Energy- Hungry Aliens

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

Parker Solar Probe will soon go deeper into the sun than ever before

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

NASA’s Voyager Probes Find Puzzles beyond the Solar System

Scientific American•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.0866

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00229

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Aerospace engineering

Physics

Dyson sphere

Science fiction

Self-replicating spacecraft

Astronomers Propose Radical New Way To Look For Signs Of Energy- Hungry Aliens

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

Parker Solar Probe will soon go deeper into the sun than ever before

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

NASA’s Voyager Probes Find Puzzles beyond the Solar System

Scientific American•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.0866

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00229

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

10%

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Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Make a Prediction

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

Comments

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?