Question

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction193

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1M

...

1.33

193

125k

18.8%

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Outline of space science

Aerospace engineering

Physics

Dyson sphere

Science fiction

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

9e-2

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

2.56e-3

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Outline of space science

Aerospace engineering

Physics

Dyson sphere

Science fiction

Found: A Planet Orbiting The Closest Single Star To Our Sun

Forbes•Oct 1, 2024

Are aliens trying to contact Earth? Scientists reveal 'weird' origin of signal that traveled 8 billion years through space

Daily Mail•Oct 2, 2024

NASA powers off a piece of Voyager 2 science to save power

CNN•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

9e-2

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

2.56e-3

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

10%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Make a Prediction

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

Comments

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?