Question

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters130

Community Prediction90% (75% - 93%)

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50%

community: 90%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Gary Marcus

Lean (proof assistant)

Coq

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

90%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Gary Marcus

Lean (proof assistant)

Coq

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

90%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%

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Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Comments

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?