Question

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters163

Community Prediction96%

Make a Prediction

community: 96%

median 96.0%mean 84.8%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

85%

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

89%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

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Why is ChatGPT so bad at math?

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

85%

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

89%

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Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

Comments

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?