Question

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters172

Community Prediction97% (90% - 98%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 97%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 5, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

AI Is Too Unpredictable to Behave According to Human Goals

Scientific American•Jan 27, 2025

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Jan 29, 2025

Generative AI Still Needs to Prove Its Usefulness

Wired•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

33%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 5, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

AI Is Too Unpredictable to Behave According to Human Goals

Scientific American•Jan 27, 2025

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Jan 29, 2025

Generative AI Still Needs to Prove Its Usefulness

Wired•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

33%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%