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How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

518 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

50,000

25,000

100,000

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Military Deaths		My Prediction		Me
50,000	ambiguous

25,000	yes

100,000	ambiguous

Resolved Dec 30, 2023

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

63%

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

0.9%

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Half of Ukrainians Want the War to End Soon While Less Than 4 in 10 Want to Fight Until Victory

PJ Media•Nov 20, 2024

Ukrainians Are Changing Their Minds on the War

Newsweek•Nov 20, 2024

Russia grinds deeper into Ukraine after 1,000 days of grueling war

Associated Press•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

63%

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

0.9%