Group

When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process?

49 comments49

28 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

5: Negotiations initiated

10: Treaty ratified

11: Ukraine admitted

9: Treaty signed

4: Negotiations approved

3: Negotiations recommended

Make a Prediction

Step

resolution

Step

median

PDF

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Jun 8, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Council of the European Union

European Commission

European Union

Accession of Turkey to the EU

Treaty of Accession

Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement

Ukraine

What will US and UK do if Russia invades the Baltics? Can Europe still rely on America's nuclear umbrella if Putin attacks Lithuania, Estonia or Latvia as fears grow that Trump will abandon NATO

Daily Mail•Feb 18, 2025

NATO Could Circumvent Donald Trump on Ukraine Peace Plan

Newsweek•Feb 19, 2025

Georgia has set a precedent that could undermine EU enlargement

Al Jazeera•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine join the EU before 2030?

17%

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Comments

? comments