Question

When will the Metaculus Algorithm break its worst prediction record?

Resolved :Ambiguous2029-04-18

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction2029-04-18 (2025-03-12 - 2034-12-08)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2039-12-31
community	Mar 2025	Apr 2029	Dec 2034	10.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Mar 2025	—
median	Apr 2029	—
upper 75%	Dec 2034	—
Upper bound
>2039-12-31	10.2%	—

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Jun 18, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2040

Metaculus

Amazon (company)

J. K. Rowling

Yankees Predicted AL East Champs Again; Red Sox Headed For Disaster Per PECOTA

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

This New Algorithm for Sorting Books or Files Is Close to Perfection

Wired•Feb 16, 2025

These researchers used NPR Sunday Puzzle questions to benchmark AI ‘reasoning’ models

TechCrunch•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Jun 18, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2040

Metaculus

Amazon (company)

J. K. Rowling

Yankees Predicted AL East Champs Again; Red Sox Headed For Disaster Per PECOTA

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

This New Algorithm for Sorting Books or Files Is Close to Perfection

Wired•Feb 16, 2025

These researchers used NPR Sunday Puzzle questions to benchmark AI ‘reasoning’ models

TechCrunch•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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