Question

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction25.5% (20% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25.5%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Jun 16, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2032

Information technology

Quantum error correction

Quantum threshold theorem

To Interact With the Real World, AI Will Gain Physical Intelligence

Wired•Jan 26, 2025

Alice&Bob raises $104M, says quantum computers based on cat qubits will be ready by 2030

TechCrunch•Jan 28, 2025

Quantum computing stocks took off this year. What's next for the trend in 2025

CNBC•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

14.7M

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

21.7

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